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Cool new dynamic forecasting model for state-level presidential election outcomes from Emory's Drew Linzer http://t.co/FmieQ1Q (PDF) -
Remember '08 was uniform swing, not much state variation MT @TheFix State unemployment #'s should make Obama feel better http://t.co/x1QvmIN
For Obama in 2012, closer look at state unemployment numbers shows silver lining
The national unemployment rate - 9.1 percent in May - paints a grim political picture for President Obama as he turns his attention to the 2012 race. But dig slightly further into the numbers an...
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Bad news for Romney/Huntsman - 20-35% wouldn't vote for Mormon. Release: http://j.mp/l2yvLc Article (gated): http://j.mp/mTe7Se
Religious bias still hurdle for presidential candidates, study shows | Research News @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt University
by Ann Marie Deer Owens | Posted on Thursday, Jun. 2, 2011 - 12:39 PM A significant number of American voters remain biased against Mormons and other religious minorities, thereby raising the hu...
ScienceDirect - Electoral Studies : Two Steps Forward, One Step Back? Bias in 2008 Presidential Election Brett V. Bensona, , Jennifer L. Merollaa, and John G. Geer, a, a Vanderbilt University United States The candidates running during the 2008 presidential campaign were the most diverse in America... -
.@jamesfallows busts journalists quoting from press releases -- people should check for this more often http://j.mp/l5X65v
The Glamorous Life of a Journalist (WashTimes / FT / Weiner Dept) - James Fallows - National - The Atlantic
Sign up to receive our three free newsletters Everyone from President Obama to Ted Koppel is bemoaning a decline in journalistic substance,… To environmentalists, "clean coal" is an insulting ox...
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John Sides of @monkeycageblog and @jbplainblog on the myth of gubernatorial coattails http://j.mp/mfajFU http://j.mp/iOE6FPGubernatorial Coattails — The Monkey Cage The first statement, regarding presidential elections, is wrong-if we interpret "advantage" to mean "presidential candidates get a statistically significant boost in states where their party con...A plain blog about politics: Governors as Assets in Presidential Elections John Sides has a good item today on the weak statistical basis for assertions that presidential candidates are helped by same-party governors in swing states. This is one of those chestnuts of A...
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.@forecasterenten responds to @fivethirtyeight on the performance of the Hibbs presidential elections model http://j.mp/lKhWNC
Margin of Error: The Hibbs Model DOES Work at Predicting and Explaining Elections
Presidential elections are all about the economy, or are they? Those who have followed my writing know that, at least at this point in the election cycle (far away from the actual 2012 general e...
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Vast debate overreaction, no? MT @fivethirtyeight: Intrade bettors give Perry (21%) twice the chance of Pawlenty (11%). http://t.co/BQSSahS
Intrade - Markets
Last prediction was: $6.02 / share Today's Change: $0.00 (0.0%) 60.2% CHANCE Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) (Open to Suggestions)
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Isn't 2016 Politico's beat? MT @nickconfessore: AP on the 2016 political bet Cuomo makes by pushing gay marriage http://bit.ly/mtBAds
NY Gov. Cuomo the new face of gay marriage rights | The Associated Press | Politics | San Francisco Examiner
Gov. Andrew Cuomo has become a prominent champion of legalized gay marriage, pushing his state into the center of the national debate over an emotional and divisive issue. In the past week, the ...
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Converse of what some said about Bush MT @conor64: 1st reader's argument is a perfect example of partisan mind's perils http://bit.ly/jKi7Rr
The Case for Stiff-Arming Congress on Libya - James Fallows - Politics - The Atlantic
James Fallows - James Fallows is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and has written for the magazine since the late 1970s. He has reported extensively from outside the United States, and ...
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Mark Penn on how Obama could lose http://j.mp/l2i0R3 Lots of lame punditry, repeats false Bush 41 scanner myth - see http://j.mp/j3wAjk
Mark Penn on How Barack Obama Could Lose the 2012 Presidential Election: Politics: GQ
If there's anyone who knows that nothing is a slam dunk in politics, it's Mark Penn. (Remember President Hillary Clinton?) The chief adviser to Hillary and Bill understands a thing or two about ...
snopes.com: President Bush and the Grocery Scanner Today, for instance, [Bush] emerged from 11 years in Washington's choicest executive mansions to confront the modern supermarket. Visiting the exhibition hall of the National Grocers Association... -
.@conor64 fears Romney would have to pick extreme VP, hurting GOP http://j.mp/j2b25C Possible but VPs rarely matter (Palin is the exception)
The Conservative Temptation to Go Rogue - Conor Friedersdorf - Politics - The Atlantic
Why a moderate Republican nominee may inspire an especially immoderate campaign season
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.@smotus carefully recasts the unemployment/pres. elections relationship - useful for journos on what we do/don't know http://j.mp/kYrOVt
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More from @jbplainblog on how the political climate creates charisma: http://bit.ly/ivlLOB My original post: http://j.mp/jlBu8IA plain blog about politics: The Winner Will Have Charisma TAPPED blogger Sarah Laskow believes that Mitt Romney's "lack of charisma on the trail could very well cost him whatever chance he has at winning the Republican nomination and the presidency" Wh...
How the political climate creates charisma - Brendan Nyhan Josh Marshall makes explicit something that most observers fail to realize -- their judgments of candidates are shaped by political circumstance: The third is just how weak this field really is ...
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RT @davidfrum: Conservative media's pay to play: why it matters http://bit.ly/jS2cLWConservative Media’s Pay-To-Play Deals | FrumForum Why are conservatives so ready to accept behaviors in their own media that they themselves would damn as outrageous if they occurred in non-conservative media? This is an issue I address in my l...
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RT @kwcollins State legislators say the darndest things, constituent-contact edition: http://t.co/ScfyA5s
Rep. Sends Constituent Semi-Literate Email Comparing Unions to Hitler
Max Read -It's always nice to hear about politicians who respond to their constituents personally. Even if those responses are barely coherent expressions of resentment and ignorance! Last year,...
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.@kdrum on the stubborn myth that Obama wants to revive the Fairness Doctrine, which even his FCC chair opposes http://j.mp/l5pw8OKilling the Fairness Doctrine. Again | Mother Jones Like what you're reading? Get the best of MoJo three times a week. The Federal Communications Commission plans to officially kill the Fairness Doctrine. Rush Limbaugh can finally rest easy. By S...
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TPaw: Tax cuts ‘almost always’ raise revenues http://j.mp/jXX1NW Will anyone ask him why so many Bush economists say no? http://j.mp/czPqyaPawlenty: Tax cuts ‘almost always’ raise revenues - Ezra Klein - The Washington Post "As people look back to the historical examples, there's been other chapters where tax cuts have been enacted, and almost always they raise revenues if you just isolate the effect of the tax cuts."
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Thoughts on how to overcome motivated reasoning in online media design by @wfrick http://j.mp/lyuq9Q http://j.mp/jV3CeM
The Future of Media Bias - Walter Frick - Technology - The Atlantic
Context can affect bias, and on the Web -- if I can riff on Lessig -- code is context. So why not design media that accounts for the user's biases and helps him overcome them? I have a good frie...
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PEJ: Weiner 4th-most covered scandal involving elected rep since '07 - #1 Blago, #2 Spitzer, #3 Craig http://j.mp/l4ANhm (via @grahamdavida)
Weiner’s Bad Week is the No. 1 Story | Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ)
The Lead Teaser: The media were riveted last week by a made-for-headlines scandal involving one of the more combative members of Congress. The U.S. economy, the chaos in the Mideast and the...
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