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A new disciplinary motto! RT @paulwaldman1: Political science: Not wrong, but often boring http://bit.ly/jyptL0
Political Science v. Journalism
Andrew Gelman, a political scientist and statistician who writes at The Monkey Cage, has been in a bit of a spat with TNR's Jon Chait about the electibility of various Republicans, whether the a...
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OBL bubble over -- Obama re-election odds at @Intrade back to 60% (about where it was before killing) http://bit.ly/ejUgXP
Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 is 60.1% probable
THE Leading Prediction Market. Trade political futures and tap into the wisdom of crowds.
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RT @sethmnookin: Wakefield goes all in, teams with 9/11 conspiracists for "The Masterplan" rally http://bit.ly/iLimyn
The Masterplan Dublin | Sovereign Independent Events
The Masterplan Dublin - Sovereign Independent The Sovereign Independent Presents The Masterplan Dublin Luke Rudkowski from WeAreChange Alan Watt from CuttingThroughTheMatrix exclusive video inte...
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Wow, better than expected. MT @postpolls: "Birther" population sliced in half. Big jump in % saying president HI-born http://wapo.st/iDO3ap
Poll: Number of ‘birthers’ plummets - Behind the Numbers - The Washington Post
The number of “birthers” in the U.S. is sliced in half following the release of Barack Obama’s long-form birth certificate, according to a new Washington Post poll.
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No, it's clean; conducted 4/28-5/1 http://j.mp/k474NH RT @bshor: Is birther change partly a result of OBL's death?Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com) This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 28 – May 1, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results...
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RT @ChrisMooney_: What is Motivated Reasoning? How Does It Work? Dan Kahan Answers http://t.co/bZHrwgZ
What is Motivated Reasoning? How Does It Work? Dan Kahan Answers | The Intersection | Discover Magazine
Guest Posts | I recently came across this post at Science & Religion Today, authored by Dan Kahan, who is the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor at Yale Law School. It clarif
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Great @conor64 deconstruction of "Rush Limbaugh's Strategically Ambiguous Monologues" http://j.mp/jqOgu0
Rush Limbaugh's Strategically Ambiguous Monologues - Conor Friedersdorf - Politics - The Atlantic
Was the talk radio host being earnest or sarcastic when he praised the president for killing bin Laden? Neither answer is correct.
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The upside of chart junk? Infographics improved long-term recall in experimental study RT @markmadsen http://bit.ly/9mayx4 (via @drewconway)
Interaction Lab | Useful Junk? The Effects of Visual Embellishment on Comprehension and Memorability of Charts
Guidelines for designing information charts often state that the presentation should reduce ‗chart junk' - visual embellishments that are not essential to understanding the data. In contrast, so...
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New psych research on how motivation can shape interpretation of scientific evidence http://j.mp/lWZh9c (via @WSJIdeasMarket)
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Annals of confused poll interpretation - @EricBoehlert fails to grasp pre-/post-OBL comparison of Obama approval http://j.mp/iXqNQ0
The Daily Beast's Confused Obama Poll | Media Matters for America
: The Daily Beast poll did in fact compare Obama approval rating results from before and after the news of Osama bin Laden's death was announced. And the Daily Beast poll broke out those results...
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Quoted by @gop12 in The Hill on effect of OBL killing on GOP debate (summary: not much) http://j.mp/jAtg6b
Bin Laden looms over GOP's first presidential primary debate
could have turned into a Republican victory if it had failed. When Republican presidential hopefuls gather in South Carolina for Thursday night’s debate, it will be the Middle East, and not the ...
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.@jbplainblog on how selection bias can lead to overestimates of rally effects http://j.mp/m2PH3bA plain blog about politics: About That POS Rally Table Not all foreign policy episodes produce a “rally round the flag effect,” and most of those effects are far smaller than one would believe from a Public Opinion Strategies table that everyone was...
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+11 but see caveat RT @MysteryPollster: New CBS/NYT poll, nyti.ms/kcbI0f, is a panel-back, reinterview of respondents first called 4/28-5/1
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Still early, but 2012 triumphalism clearly wrong MT @MysteryPollster Summary of overnight polls on Obama, OBL, terrorism http://t.co/ofgL4w8
Obama Approval Ratings Jump On Terrorism, Afghanistan
WASHINGTON -- A handful of new national polls conducted in the immediate aftermath of Osama bin Laden's death reveal happiness and relief combined with improving perceptions of President Barack ...
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New MD survey: "Vaccine safety talks can burn up valuable checkup time"; 80% have 1+ refusal/month, 89% 1+ delays/month http://j.mp/jyd0UM
amednews: Vaccine safety talks can burn up valuable checkup time :: May 2, 2011 ... American Medical News
Half of doctors spend nearly 20 minutes discussing concerns with some parents, despite studies rejecting links between autism and immunization.
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Megan McArdle traces the genesis of the fake MLK quote that's circulated so widely since OBL's killing http://j.mp/l1lnjU
Anatomy of a Fake Quotation - Megan McArdle - National - The Atlantic
How millions of people fell for a line that was attributed to Martin Luther King but really came from a middle school teacher
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RT @smotus: Anyone know how to pick a good municipal clerk/recorder or auditor? http://j.mp/mEraKf #toomanyelections
Enik Rising: Too many elections
It's Election Day in Denver! I just voted for mayor and two city council offices.* But what's really important is that I had a chance to vote for the city clerk and recorder's office. Whoever wi...
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Estimated nine-point bounce RT @postpolls: Osama bin Laden killing gives Obama quick but limited ratings boost http://j.mp/jSsf2n
Osama bin Laden killing gives Obama quick but limited ratings boost
The president gets broad credit for the targeted killing of Osama bin Laden and a quick bump in his approval rating. But he still gets negative marks on the economy.
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RT @jbouie: Politico engages in the Beltway tradition of bashing Congress for the crime of taking democracy seriously: http://cl.ly/6Qkg
Politics as Usual
By | Posted 05/03/2011 at 11:23 AM Politico bemoans the post-bin Laden "politics as usual" atmosphere on Capitol Hill: Capitol Hill was awash in unity Monday in the immediate aftermath of Osama ...
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New paper: "The Effect of Local Weather on Americans’ Perceptions about Global Warming" http://j.mp/lnrZI8 (PDF)
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.@jackshafer on Bloomberg: "he would be a fool *not* to run in 2012 as an independent" http://j.mp/kieK8E I'll agree if we remove "not"
Michael Kinsley's first Bloomberg View column: What it should say.
My friend and former boss Michael Kinsley has packed his smartphone and khakis and is leaving Politico for a job at Bloomberg View, Bloomberg LP's soon-to-be-launched editorial and opinion website.
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RT @HickmanPolls: Gallup backgrounder on rally effects: http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/
Gallup.Com - Polling Matters by Frank Newport
Tonight’s GOP debate in South Carolina features five possible presidential candidates, four of whom are known to less than half of Republicans nationwide. As such, one much-sought-after outcome ...
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RT @nickconfessore: Hamilton College class analyzes accuracy of pundit predictions. Krugman tops, Cal Thomas bottoms. Full release @ 4:15PM http://bit.ly/mgy407
Claim: Krugman is top prognosticator; Cal Thomas is the worst | Poynter.
A Hamilton College class and their public policy professor analyzed the predicts of 26 pundits — including Sunday morning TV talkers — and used a scale of 1 to 5 to rate their accuracy. After , ...
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